MyDD :: The February 5th primaries and the fallacy of early voting

The February 5th primaries and the fallacy of early voting

by minvis, Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 05:34:33 PM EST

I submitted a shorter entry on this in Jerome's Edwards campaign diary, but I thought this might merit a diary of its own. Let me first start out with the standard disclaimer that the list of states participating in the February 5th primaries is still changing and obviously as more states are either added or dropped from this date, the early voting dates will change as well.

Let's first start by looking at which states that are either already set to have the primary on Feburary 5th or changed it by legislative action. Then we can look at whether each of these states has no excuse early voting and if so, how early does early voting start there. See the list below the fold.

Alabama - Does not allow (only Absentee with excuse)

Alaska (caucus) - Allows - correct me if I'm wrong, but since it is a caucus, no early voting would be permitted.

Arizona - Allows - 33 days prior to election (January 3rd)

Arkansas - Allows - 15 days prior to election (January 21st)

California - Allows - 29 days prior to election (January 7th)

Colorado (caucus) - Allows (see Alaska above)

Delaware - Does not allow

Georgia - Allows - 8 days prior to election (January 28th)

Illinois - Allows - 22 days prior to election (January 14th)

Missouri - Only allows with an excuse - 15 days prior to election (January 22nd)

New Jersey - Does not allow

New Mexico - Allows - 3rd Saturday prior to election (January 19th)

New York - Does not allow

North Carolina - Allows - 3rd Thursday prior to election (January 17th)

North Dakota (caucus) - Allows

Oklahoma - Allows - Friday before election (February 1st)

Tennessee - Allows - 20 days prior to election (January 16th)

Utah - Allows - 20 days prior to election (January 16th)

Additionally, these states may move up to February 5th

Connecticut - Does not allow

Kansas - Allows - 20 days prior to election (January 16th)

Rhode Island - Does not allow

Texas - Allows - 17 days prior to election (January 19th)

Finally, the two states with primaries on January 29th, South Carolina and Florida, only Florida has early voting. Their early voting starts 15 days prior to election day. That would make it on January 14th.

As it stands only 2 states, Arizona and California, will have anyone early voting before the Iowa caucuses. Additionally, only Florida and Illinois will start early voting on the day of the Iowa caucus. All the other states that permit early voting will start after the Iowa caucuses.

It's anyone's guess on how many people will vote early in California and Arizona before the Iowa caucuses. Just because they can vote before January 14th doesn't mean they will. Obviously, you will get some of your hard core supporters out before then, but no one knows how many that will be at this point.

In fact, I've seen people on this site say that because of early voting, that certain candidates will already have amassed delegates prior to the Iowa caucus. No delegates will be won in Arizona and California before January 14th. Yes, there may be votes cast for your candidate in the bank by then, but that's it.

Even with early voting, the Iowa caucus will still be a huge barometer of the race for the nomination.

Tags: 2008 democratic primary, early voting (all tags)

Permalink :: 22 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: early voting laws (none / 0)

Here's the link for the state laws regarding early voting.

http://www.electionline.org/Default.aspx ?tabid=474

A great democracy must be progressive or it will soon cease to be a great democracy. - Teddy Roosevelt

by minvis on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 05:39:43 PM EST

Re: The February 5th primaries and the fallacy of (none / 0)

Early voting is a red herring. I think you're ignoring the most important aspect of the Early Primaries. These states shifted forward because the people want a say in the decision of who the next President will be. They want their voices heard. They want to make up their own minds and not be told only these candidates have a realistic shot at this point in time. So they've removed the at this point in time part. We won't know for sure how this plays out vis-a-vis Iowa and NH, but from my perspective, living in the largest State in the Country, I think that we will see a whole new dynamic.

by DD2 on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 06:12:28 PM EST

Re: The February 5th primaries and the fallacy of (none / 0)

I agree here. Even though the primaries are moved up and loaded, in the past the nomination was almost a given. In Illinois before I think our primary was in March or April. And the early voting is going to move a lot of people to it. Just watch and see. I voted early for the mid-term in November and alot of people was doing this. I went on a Saturday and it was a line out of the door. Only 5 machines. So, I think people will be out voting early, especially for the democrats.

"I want my voice to be read"

by icebergslim on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 06:18:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The February 5th primaries and the fallacy of (none / 0)

it was the third tuesday of march...

"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton

by bored now on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 10:26:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The February 5th primaries and the fallacy of (none / 0)

And also, to add. With these candidates and monies raised, alot of this is going to be a ground game, watch.

"I want my voice to be read"

by icebergslim on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 06:18:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ground game (none / 0)

I don't dispute the importance of the ground game. It's even more important in the primary since the percentage of registered voters that actually vote is less in the primary compared to the general. I'm also not discounting that early voting won't have any impact. My contention is that even with early voting, the results in Iowa will still have the large impact on these February 5th states that it historically has had.

The vast majority of the states with early voting will not even start early voting until after the Iowa caucuses and many of them will start with the Iowa results fresh in their minds. Let's say Edwards or Obama win Iowa, you're telling me that it won't have any effect on these early voters as well. This, I believe, will make Iowa even more important, not less so.

A great democracy must be progressive or it will soon cease to be a great democracy. - Teddy Roosevelt

by minvis on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 06:40:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ground game (none / 0)

Oh, I agree. The caucus is a different story. You got to get folks SIGNED UP to CAUCUS for you. Totally, different than early voting or just voting day of a primary. Who ever is first/second in Iowa will have some momentum, especially first. But do not discount coming in second.

"I want my voice to be read"

by icebergslim on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 06:53:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

second place could be ok for Obama (none / 0)

but only if Edwards wins Iowa.

If Obama comes in second to Hillary in Iowa, it's all over. Obama is going to have to make the case against Hillary, and we Edwards supporters will need to do our part as well.

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

by desmoinesdem on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 07:20:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: second place could be ok for Obama (none / 0)

AGREED.

"I want my voice to be read"

by icebergslim on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 07:26:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The February 5th primaries and the fallacy of (none / 0)

the legislature's did- not the voters. there is a difference.

by bruh21 on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 06:38:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It will have an effect (none / 0)

I agree that the states like California, Florida, Illinois, etc. will have more effect on the nomination than they used to. I just think that it doesn't necessarily devalue Iowa more. It may prove to have the opposite effect.

A great democracy must be progressive or it will soon cease to be a great democracy. - Teddy Roosevelt

by minvis on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 06:53:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It will have an effect (none / 0)

This primary is going to be OPEN, all out, just watch.

"I want my voice to be read"

by icebergslim on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 06:54:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The February 5th primaries and the fallacy of (none / 0)

Really important point. I'm in California and caught up in the early voting, particularly because of the unique media nature of the state. And California is certainly the decoder ring at the bottom of the Corn Flakes, but there's a lot more nuance than anyone wants to bother with involved in properly utilizing early voting.

by Lucas O'Connor on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 09:37:01 PM EST

Re: The February 5th primaries and the fallacy of (none / 0)

I think a definite point can be made that California and Arizona, but especially California, because of the sheer amount of delegates and the amount of people that early vote there. The campaigns can not wait to see what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire first before hitting the California media markets for advertising.

As an Edwards supporter now, it does concern me that I don't hear about a huge staff/presence out in California yet for him. You can't simply ramp up your campaign there in the last month. I can also certainly see a large budget necessary for each of the campaigns to compete in California and I am worried about what his fundraising will be in the 3rd quarter. He better have a good staff setup there by the end of September.

A great democracy must be progressive or it will soon cease to be a great democracy. - Teddy Roosevelt

by minvis on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 10:35:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The February 5th primaries and the fallacy of (none / 0)

California, for better or worse, is a unique case because it's pretty much ONLY media that matters. There was an interesting post recently on Calitics mentioning that Obama has no staff in CA so far. The point, which I think is most valuable in the context of the Democratic Party as a whole, is that there's tons of grassroots organizing going on and a lot of passion, but not a lot of direction coming from leadership. I know I run the risk of agitating Obama folks by saying that, but as I mention, I don't think it's an Obama issue so much as a party issue. The passion is out there if somebody figures out how to harness it (not just benefit from it). Last year the party benefited without harnessing. Hopefully in 2008, that changes.

by Lucas O'Connor on Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 11:43:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The February 5th primaries and the fallacy of (none / 0)

bingo. this is exactly why i say that edwards fund-raising goals are not designed with 2008 (or even 2006) in mind. california doesn't even seem to be a consideration in his fund-raising plan. and unless he steps it up three or four notches, he'll have spent all his COH by the time he gets out of new hampshire. the schedule doesn't allow for a big haul after iowa and new hampshire any more...

"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton

by bored now on Sat Jul 07, 2007 at 08:51:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

'early vote' misleading, absentee key (none / 0)

FL absentees can be as many as 20 days before the election, i.e. Jan 9. So with CA, AZ and FL a candidate could have large numbers of delegates in the bank before IA on Jan 14.

by souvarine on Sat Jul 07, 2007 at 12:12:39 AM EST

Re: 'early vote' misleading, absentee key (none / 0)

Absentee voting has always been around. The problem with that is that it's a very intensive project for the campaign. Not only do you have to get the absentee application to the voter, but they have to fill it out and give it back to you to send in the Election Board and then it gets mailed to them and then they have to vote and resend it back.

What I'm talking about is going to the Election Board or a satellite office and voting on a machine early. In Florida, it is only 15 days before the election when you can do that.

And let me reiterate that no delegates are in the bank before January 14th. The candidates will definitely have votes in the bank by then, but no delegates because those early votes have to be added to whomever votes on election day before any vote percentages are calculated.

A great democracy must be progressive or it will soon cease to be a great democracy. - Teddy Roosevelt

by minvis on Sat Jul 07, 2007 at 12:39:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 'early vote' misleading, absentee key (none / 0)

delegates? early voters are core supporters, people who don't need additional persuasion. as near as i can tell, core supporters (nationally) are pretty well of equal size (18%, 18%, 17% iirc).

now hillary should have a massive early voting apparatus, just because she's focused on the 'women with needs' segment. these are precisely the voters who will not vote on election day if something comes up. but even if hillary reaches republican size goals for targeted areas (40%), i'm still not sure she'll have wrapped up bunches of delegates before iowa. that's a bold statement...

"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton

by bored now on Sat Jul 07, 2007 at 08:57:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (none / 0)

Hillary has California in the bag- there is no use for the others even wasting time and resources here.

by reasonwarrior on Sat Jul 07, 2007 at 10:19:23 AM EST

Re: (none / 0)

Ah yes, another mindless entry from fanatical Hillarites. Not on on single piece of data or history to back up that statement.

A great democracy must be progressive or it will soon cease to be a great democracy. - Teddy Roosevelt

by minvis on Sat Jul 07, 2007 at 09:48:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (none / 0)

June 25th, 2007-A new Survey and Policy Research Institute poll shows Clinton and Giuliani leading in California. On the Dem side, Clinton is at 37%, while Edwards and Obama are tied at 15% each. Perhaps most strikingly, among women, Clinton is at 45% -- versus 13% for Obama and 8% for Edwards.

But aside from that poll which shows her with twice the lead of the others, I live here and I know my state and we will vote for Hillary- that is why I say it's better for them to spend the money in Iowa and other states where they have more of a chance.

by reasonwarrior on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 12:57:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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